Issued Thursday 16th May 2024
Issued 14th May 2024
The 14 day video forecast is usually updated weekly.
The 14 day discussion is usually updated twice each week.
Friday: Warm sunny periods develop in much of the UK. However, there will be showers and some of them are likely to be heavy.
Saturday: Heavy showers are expected to affect Wales and south western England. In other areas scattered showers could develop, but there should be a good deal of warm sunshine.
Sunday: Most of the UK has a dry day with warm spells of sunshine and just a few isolated showers. The exceptions are likely to be north western Britain where showers could be more frequent and heavy, as well as eastern coastal counties where there is a likelihood of cooler and cloudier conditions.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: The north probably has the driest and brightest weather. In the south there should be warm sunny spells too, but heavy showers or longer periods of rain remain possible, especially later on. Temperatures generally above the average.
Forecast confidence is high falling to medium.
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All regions can expect showers or longer outbreaks of rain and there is a risk of thundery conditions at times. Despite that, there should be a reasonable amount of dry and bright weather, particularly through the middle part of the week when a more settled period could develop. Temperatures are forecast to be above the average and there is the potential for it to be warm or even very warm on occasion.
Forecast confidence is low.
During the first few days high pressure builds across the north with areas of low pressure centred over continental Europe. Towards the end of the week an area of low pressure may deepen close to the UK.
The chart below is from the UKM Global model. It shows pressure and precipitation at 12:00, Tuesday 21st May.
High pressure is expected to have more influence during the middle part of the week. Later on pressure starts to fall and Atlantic disturbances bring more changeable conditions back.
The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Sunday 26th May.
The risk of showers or longer spells of rain remains. Nonetheless, there should be a reasonable amount of warm and dry spells too. The showery nature of the rain means local variations are likely to be large.
The chart below shows forecast maximum temperatures on Sunday 19th May.
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